Posts Tagged ‘senate’

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Anti-gnostications

2008.November.5

What can I say? I’m better at asking questions than predicting answers. Because I am too tired from celebrating to write a real entry today, allow me to react to and modify my previous entry:

“Barack Obama wins nationally with a popular vote over 55% and approximately 3/4 of the Electoral College. I wouldn’t call it a landslide, but definitely a solid mandate.”

Right call, wrong numbers. Just a matter of scale, really. I think I meant to say 55% and EV of 3/5, or I was just too lazy to look at the margins. The 55% didn’t happen because the difference was more stark in McCain’s victory states than I had expected, but he still won the highest percentage in twenty years. Anyway, his victory passed 3/5.

“Obama loses Texas by 3-5 points, faring much better than expected. If only he’d spent some cash down here.”

Again, right call, but I forgot where I live. Obama was far from striking distance at 11 points back, but it halved the 23 point spread Bush had over Kerry in 2004.

Sarah Palin tries to run for President in 2012, but drops out before January is half-over. Don’t count her out from the national scene, though. The biggest mistake Democrats made all year (even more than dragging out the Michigan/Florida limbo) has been misjudging her role in the campaign and underestimating the contribution she makes.”

Too early to tell, but you’ll notice that her name is still on the lips of many commentators, and not only to receive blame. Am I the only person who thinks she looked embarrassed at McCain’s concession speech?

Rick Noriega loses by 5-7 points.”

By which, of course, I meant 12. :P

“Senate becomes 59-40-1, after upsets in Georgia and Minnesota.”

Depending on which site you consult, there’s still a chance, but it looks like it will be closer to 57 or 58 (including Lieberman and that other independent liberal I forgot to count). Georgia is probably Republican though, and Minnesota is deep into recount territory.

“Dems are icy to Joe Lieberman but allow him to continue caucusing with them to maintain their supermajority. Liberal policy not the death-knell to business that conservatives prophecy, but social policy progresses less than expected. Foreign relations improve quickly in early months, but plateau halfway through the first year thanks to new tensions around economics and Russian chest-beating. Countrywide, Democrats grow increasingly annoyed with Nancy Pelosi, but Hillary Clinton becomes a more balanced and broadly respected figure in the Senate. Old white men become passe and 2010 sees more nonwhites and women running for office than ever before.”

All pure speculation, and will be years before we know for sure.

“Texas House goes to Dems with a slim majority. Speaker Craddick is replaced by someone I’ve never heard of, someone else I don’t know becomes Minority Leader, and the possibility of a non-partisan commission for redrawing district lines is given serious, state-wide consideration but may not pass in time for the next redistricting.”

Well, no fudging numbers here, I was flat out wrong about the majority. But the rest is still possible, and the Legislature will be almost purple next session.

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Election Day Predictions

2008.November.4

This is just me, tired and needing to sleep but also needing to post a blog, taking a stab to see if I have any sense of political strategy (with all the legwork being done by Electoral-Vote.com).

Barack Obama wins nationally with a popular vote over 55% and approximately 3/4 of the Electoral College. I wouldn’t call it a landslide, but definitely a solid mandate.

Obama loses Texas by 3-5 points, faring much better than expected. If only he’d spent some cash down here.

Sarah Palin tries to run for President in 2012, but drops out before January is half-over. Don’t count her out from the national scene, though. The biggest mistake Democrats made all year (even more than dragging out the Michigan/Florida limbo) has been misjudging her role in the campaign and underestimating the contribution she makes.

Rick Noriega loses by 5-7 points. One or two appearances with Obama in this state could have won it for him by sparking fundraising, but his lackluster TV ads don’t help either.

Senate becomes 59-40-1, after upsets in Georgia and Minnesota. Dems are icy to Joe Lieberman but allow him to continue caucusing with them to maintain their supermajority. Liberal policy not the death-knell to business that conservatives prophecy, but social policy progresses less than expected. Foreign relations improve quickly in early months, but plateau halfway through the first year thanks to new tensions around economics and Russian chest-beating. Countrywide, Democrats grow increasingly annoyed with Nancy Pelosi, but Hillary Clinton becomes a more balanced and broadly respected figure in the Senate. Old white men become passe and 2010 sees more nonwhites and women running for office than ever before.

Texas House goes to Dems with a slim majority. Speaker Craddick is replaced by someone I’ve never heard of, someone else I don’t know becomes Minority Leader, and the possibility of a non-partisan commission for redrawing district lines is given serious, state-wide consideration but may not pass in time for the next redistricting.

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Why to Do Your Research…

2008.October.11

John “Transparency” Cornyn supported re-authorizing the Patriot Act? And wanted a federal amendment outlawing same-sex marriage? Well, guess my instincts were right on that one after all… Go Noriega!

[shoulda known… that cow commercial is a spectacle of vagueness and Texas pretension…]

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Why Not to Toe the Party Line…

2008.October.11

Getting involved with the Obama campaign locally gets you in with a lot of Democrats and you hear a lot of the good stuff about the Dems running for other offices. It’s easy for an Independent to get caught up in it, so that no matter how many times you’ve refused to donate to the party or vote straight-ticket, you still find yourself swayed on races you know little about.

After watching Thursday’s debate between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and his challenger, Rick Noriega, I had to admit that not only had Cornyn won the debate, he had also won a second (or, admittedly, first) look from me. In addition to being a superior debater, Cornyn made great statements about transparency and leadership that struck me as very genuine. Could it be he was no idealogue, but another of those rare politicians who wants to improve the political scene as much or more than promote his own agenda?

Could it be a choice between two decent candidates? I like Noriega. I think he’s a good candidate with a good background and a healthy amount of military and political experience. But I came away last night thinking I might like Cornyn, too, and promising to dig a little deeper. I’ll let you know what I find out.

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