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Anti-gnostications

2008.November.5

What can I say? I’m better at asking questions than predicting answers. Because I am too tired from celebrating to write a real entry today, allow me to react to and modify my previous entry:

“Barack Obama wins nationally with a popular vote over 55% and approximately 3/4 of the Electoral College. I wouldn’t call it a landslide, but definitely a solid mandate.”

Right call, wrong numbers. Just a matter of scale, really. I think I meant to say 55% and EV of 3/5, or I was just too lazy to look at the margins. The 55% didn’t happen because the difference was more stark in McCain’s victory states than I had expected, but he still won the highest percentage in twenty years. Anyway, his victory passed 3/5.

“Obama loses Texas by 3-5 points, faring much better than expected. If only he’d spent some cash down here.”

Again, right call, but I forgot where I live. Obama was far from striking distance at 11 points back, but it halved the 23 point spread Bush had over Kerry in 2004.

Sarah Palin tries to run for President in 2012, but drops out before January is half-over. Don’t count her out from the national scene, though. The biggest mistake Democrats made all year (even more than dragging out the Michigan/Florida limbo) has been misjudging her role in the campaign and underestimating the contribution she makes.”

Too early to tell, but you’ll notice that her name is still on the lips of many commentators, and not only to receive blame. Am I the only person who thinks she looked embarrassed at McCain’s concession speech?

Rick Noriega loses by 5-7 points.”

By which, of course, I meant 12. :P

“Senate becomes 59-40-1, after upsets in Georgia and Minnesota.”

Depending on which site you consult, there’s still a chance, but it looks like it will be closer to 57 or 58 (including Lieberman and that other independent liberal I forgot to count). Georgia is probably Republican though, and Minnesota is deep into recount territory.

“Dems are icy to Joe Lieberman but allow him to continue caucusing with them to maintain their supermajority. Liberal policy not the death-knell to business that conservatives prophecy, but social policy progresses less than expected. Foreign relations improve quickly in early months, but plateau halfway through the first year thanks to new tensions around economics and Russian chest-beating. Countrywide, Democrats grow increasingly annoyed with Nancy Pelosi, but Hillary Clinton becomes a more balanced and broadly respected figure in the Senate. Old white men become passe and 2010 sees more nonwhites and women running for office than ever before.”

All pure speculation, and will be years before we know for sure.

“Texas House goes to Dems with a slim majority. Speaker Craddick is replaced by someone I’ve never heard of, someone else I don’t know becomes Minority Leader, and the possibility of a non-partisan commission for redrawing district lines is given serious, state-wide consideration but may not pass in time for the next redistricting.”

Well, no fudging numbers here, I was flat out wrong about the majority. But the rest is still possible, and the Legislature will be almost purple next session.

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