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Election Day Predictions

2008.November.4

This is just me, tired and needing to sleep but also needing to post a blog, taking a stab to see if I have any sense of political strategy (with all the legwork being done by Electoral-Vote.com).

Barack Obama wins nationally with a popular vote over 55% and approximately 3/4 of the Electoral College. I wouldn’t call it a landslide, but definitely a solid mandate.

Obama loses Texas by 3-5 points, faring much better than expected. If only he’d spent some cash down here.

Sarah Palin tries to run for President in 2012, but drops out before January is half-over. Don’t count her out from the national scene, though. The biggest mistake Democrats made all year (even more than dragging out the Michigan/Florida limbo) has been misjudging her role in the campaign and underestimating the contribution she makes.

Rick Noriega loses by 5-7 points. One or two appearances with Obama in this state could have won it for him by sparking fundraising, but his lackluster TV ads don’t help either.

Senate becomes 59-40-1, after upsets in Georgia and Minnesota. Dems are icy to Joe Lieberman but allow him to continue caucusing with them to maintain their supermajority. Liberal policy not the death-knell to business that conservatives prophecy, but social policy progresses less than expected. Foreign relations improve quickly in early months, but plateau halfway through the first year thanks to new tensions around economics and Russian chest-beating. Countrywide, Democrats grow increasingly annoyed with Nancy Pelosi, but Hillary Clinton becomes a more balanced and broadly respected figure in the Senate. Old white men become passe and 2010 sees more nonwhites and women running for office than ever before.

Texas House goes to Dems with a slim majority. Speaker Craddick is replaced by someone I’ve never heard of, someone else I don’t know becomes Minority Leader, and the possibility of a non-partisan commission for redrawing district lines is given serious, state-wide consideration but may not pass in time for the next redistricting.

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